Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Week 6

Hi everyone!

I apologize for the late post! I have been away for spring break but now that we're back in school, we can get back into the swing of things!
     The first goal for week 6 was to estimate the amount of water one household could collect per day (average) in 2020 and 2025 and compare that to the average amount of water we use today. Using the average roof size and predicted precipitation values from previous posts, I made calculations for each graphs (10 years, 15 years, and 30 years) by plugging those values into the same equation I used before (Rainfall x 0.623 x Roof Area x Runoff Coefficient). Now, of course, to get the average amount of rainfall the average household could collect per day, I divided the final number by 365 (I'm sorry, leap year babies).
Decade trend: 2020: 29.2 gals. 2025: 54.52 gals.
15 year trend: 2020: 83.56 gals. 2025: 90.16 gals.
30 year trend: 2020: 49.48 gals. 2025: 46 gals.
The average household could have collected 67.77 gallons!
     I know to some, this data looks grim. But don't fret! I'm not your average doomsday hooligan yelling mumbo-jumbo on the street corner. I am hopeful. I believe that if we do make changes to our lifestyles (discussed below), things can turn out for the better.
     Now, after contacting Robin Harrington, she informed me that in 2014, the average water consumption per capita per day, domestically, is 53 gallons. Clearly, from comparing the data above to our usage, it is not possible for the average household in Flagstaff to sustain their way of life solely on rainwater. There are several things people can do to change this. One is we can reduce the amount of water used per day (ideas posted previously). This can conserve the amount we have and get us through drier times with some security. We can also cut back on emissions (you too, volcanoes). Since greenhouse gas and fossil fuel emissions are linked to climate change, it makes sense to reduce the amount we produce if we want to change the environment. And this ranges from driving less to more sustainable energy sources. You can find more ideas here and here, and share some of your own in the comments!
     Back on track, another goal for this week was to make a bibliography and summarize my lit review. I will list all the articles and websites I have gotten information (below). I hope to expand this list as I finish up my background research.
  • Seager, Richard, et al. Projections of declining surface-water availability of for the southwestern United States. Nature Climate Change. May 2013
  • Vano, Julie., et al. Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow. American Meteorological Society. January 2014
  • Garfin, Gregg (University of Arizona), Franco, Guido (California Commission). Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Chapter 20: Southwest. U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2014.
  • Hereford, Richard. Climate Variation at Flagstaff, Arizona - 1950 to 2007. U.S. Department of the Interior; U.S. Geological Survey. 2007.
  • Water in Israel-Palestine. Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East. July 2010.
  • 'UAE Water Consumption Highest in the World. Emirates 24/7 News. March 2013.
  • Reclamation, Managing Water in the West: Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study - Executive Study. U.S. Department of the Interior - Bureau of Reclamation. December 2012.
  • Sustainability Program Recommendations. The City of Flagstaff. October 2012.
  • Climatography of the United States - Station: Flagstaff Pulliam Ap, AZ. U.S. Department of Commerce; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; National Climatic Data Center. February 2004.
  • Lavine, Jeremy. El NiƱo
  • Water Conservation. The Utilities Department - City of Flagstaff. 
Well, even though this post was shorter than usual, I hope enjoyed it. I plan to write that official summary within the next week so keep your eyes peeled for that! As always, thanks for reading! :)
                                           -Lia 

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Week 5

Welcome back, everyone!

     In this post, I'll be talking about statistics for my own home, ways we can cut down on water usage, and how foreign nations can help us understand what we can do back home.
     The main goal for the 5th week was to take all of the data that I found and relate it to the current usage to see how they compare. This post may be a little more vague and about all sorts of stuff because I'm still working with my advisors to make that comparison. I also created the abstract for my project. "What is an abstract" you ask? Well let me tell you! When you read a scientific article of any sort (c'mon, I know all of you have subscriptions to Scientific American), the first thing you see is the abstract. Essentially, it is an introduction, summary, and background to the study, why it was conducted, what they discovered, what they did (method), and what they concluded. Well, I did just that, and after I polish it, I'll submit it here!
         Anywho, going on to the meat of this week, Ms. Vaughan and I had a little trouble tying it all together so I consulted my dearest father. What follows is what we came up with as to what steps I should take. Since we weren't 100% on the domestic water usage amount yet (the average data I gave you in the 1st week included domestic and commercial uses), I hope to talk to Robin Harrington, city water utilities extraordinaire, to get current data.
     To continue, although we can't assume that our own house represents the average roof size for the city, we decided to use it for this week's purposes since we already have a fully-functional rainwater harvesting system installed. Also, since we can access our monthly usage since 2012, I can compare that to the city's average and look at how rain harvesting has impacted our overall usage. So, to start, the total amount of rainwater we could have harvested in 2014 is 22,287.9 gallons.
     Though that does seem like a whole lot of water, the average household in the city could have collected 24,736 gallons. Now, that's how much we can collect but don't because of storage issues--though we can fill almost to our full capacity on just one storm. Which brings up another issue: practicality. There are two things to consider: how many tanks and where. There is a balance between having too few tanks--thus not storing enough--and having too large of a tank--never collecting to full capacity and having wasted space (and money). A harvesting guide I have used has information on how to estimate how much tank space you need based on roof size (don't fret, I'll cover that soon). The other issue is space. As shown in the last post, even just 1000 gallon tanks are pretty big and people may not have the yard space to put the amount they need. One idea I had is to put it under the ground or the house (more useful if you're in the early stages of building and incorporating it into the initial plans). Just food for thought. Have any other ideas? Feel free to share them in the comments! 
Anyways, the data for the amount of water used per month since February 2012 is as follows:
Billing PeriodsNumber of DaysDaily UsageTotal Usage
02/2015 30 119.33 3,580.00 
01/2015 29 100.00 2,900.00 
12/2014 32 118.75 3,800.00 
11/2014 31 109.03 3,380.00 
10/2014 28 107.14 3,000.00 
09/2014 38 114.47 4,350.00 
08/2014 30 84.00 2,520.00 
07/2014 29 158.62 4,600.00 
06/2014 34 146.18 4,970.00 
05/2014 28 130.00 3,640.00 
04/2014 30 106.67 3,200.00 
03/2014 28 130.71 3,660.00 
02/2014 32 128.13 4,100.00 
01/2014 31 54.19 1,680.00 
12/2013 31 135.81 4,210.00 
11/2013 29 124.83 3,620.00 
10/2013 31 143.55 4,450.00 
09/2013 28 142.61 3,993.00 
08/2013 33 215.06 7,097.00 
07/2013 30 504.33 15,130.00 
06/2013 32 780.63 24,980.00 
05/2013 36 259.17 9,330.00 
04/2013 29 172.41 5,000.00 
03/2013 28 146.79 4,110.00 
02/2013 28 163.21 4,570.00 
01/2013 36 116.94 4,210.00 
12/2012 27 163.33 4,410.00 
11/2012 35 206.00 7,210.00 
10/2012 25 160.00 4,000.00 
09/2012 31 150.97 4,680.00 
08/2012 32 152.50 4,880.00 
07/2012 30 348.00 10,440.00 
06/2012 30 268.33 8,050.00 
05/2012 32 199.38 6,380.00 
04/2012 30 147.67 4,430.00 
03/2012 28 148.21 4,150.00 
02/2012 29 137.24 3,980.00

     According to the city, our average water usage per day was approximately 118 gallons. When I divided that by the number of humanoids living in our home (excluding the guinea pig, whose water consumption is negligible), I found that each of us used about 30 gallons per day. Now you may be thinking "wow that's a lot for one person!" Or you might think something different. You know, I'm not you. Regardless, I don't mean to toot my own horn here but think that is actually fairly impressive considering that, from what I heard, the average amount of water used daily per capita is close to 100 gallons. An optimal amount, however, would be about half of that.
     Now to return to the graph, to break it up into another applicable form, we did not have a garden for most of 2012 (which explains the fairly moderate to low amount of water used). However, until September 2013, we did create a garden but had not yet installed a rainwater collection system. This explains the absurdly large amount of city water we used in June (almost 25,000 gallons). Finally, after installing the harvesting system in September of 2013, there is a drop in how much city water is used. All in all, this shows how rainwater harvesting can save a bucket load (ha!), especially economically. Incentives, people, incentives
     To put exact numbers, I took the average amount of water per day for the three years. Then I compared the periods before vs. after we installed the system.
Total Daily: 118 gals.
After installation Daily: 119 gals.
Before installation Daily: 233.7 gals. 
     Therefore, installing a rain harvesting system saved us 114.7 gallons per day. Again, incentives, I tell you! Furthermore, in 2014, we used 42,900 gallons of (city) water-- even with the rain harvesting system installed. To meet that amount with rainfall, it would have to rain approximately 35 inches throughout the year, which is even more than what Richard Hereford's report predicted (22 inches/ year). Let's consider this: we live in a desert. Yet many of us live like we live somewhere, well, that isn't a desert. If we had to move somewhere wetter to sustain this amount of consumption, a good option might be Seattle! Getting just under 40 inches a year, it is one of the wettest cities in the U.S. and would have more than enough to sustain that lifestyle.
     But what if moving is not an option? How can we manage our water use more wisely and cut down on usage? Well, to quote my father, here are some ideas:
  • Only flush "solids" and learn to live proudly with liquid wastes
  • Shower only on days that don't start with the letters "S" and "T", and use a 5-gallon bucket to catch the grey water and use it to flush those solids
  • Landscape the yard to maximize surface runoff from impervious landscape surfaces into garden areas
  • Wash clothes only on days of the months that start with the letter "W"
  • Wash all dishes by hand and use only biodegradable soap, then use rinse and wash water to water outdoor/indoor plants
  • No car washing
  • Use a cup of water to brush teeth
                         - The Terrific Ted

Some ideas I had:

  • You don't need a cup of water to brush you teeth..
  • Use a water filter in your fridge. That way, you don't need to waste a whole lot of water  waiting for it to get cold
  • Turn water off during taking showers when it is not a necessity (e.g. when applying soap)

     Finally, regardless of what you might call it--the can, the porcelain throne, le loo--60% of household water everyday goes towards flushing the toilet. Since the Energy Policy Act of 1992, all standard toilets in the U.S. have to flow with 1.6 gallons or less--a 68% drop from the 5 gallons used before. Smart move, I must say. Regardless, if we cut back on how much water is used towards this household item (flushing less or using a lower flow) can have a major impact on daily water used.

     After plugging in our roof size and Herefords predicted precipitation into the equation used in previous weeks (Rainfall (in)*0.623*roof/ catchment Area (ft^2)*runoff coefficient), I discovered that with our roof size (smaller than the average, mind you) and future precipitation based on Hereford's report, we can collect 26,649 gallons. This averages to about 74 gals. for the entire house per day and 18 gallons for each of us. Many of us may think it impossible to live off this amount of water each day but  believe it or not, although this is only about 3 1/2 Home Depot buckets, this is the same amount of water as daily per capita consumption in Israel! This just goes to show how it is possible to live off a greatly reduced water budget. Finally, to wrap this post up, the average amount of water used per capita in the United Arab Emirates (which receives the same if not less precipitation than Israel) is 132 to 182 gallons per day. Holy cucamonga! They get little to no rainfall and yet use almost 9 times the amount of Israel! To be exact they consume 82% above the global average. They have the mula to continue in this way (desalinization), but it does not seem sustainable in my opinion...
     Finally, if the average family in Flagstaff continues to use their current amount of daily water consumption, there will not be enough rainfall in the future to sustain that lifestyle (at least as a the only source). However, I believe that if citizens of Flagstaff alter and limit how they use their water, it is possible to sustain that way of life with rainwater harvesting. Also, I hope to put in the statistics I found last week to see if those predictions will also bring in enough rain.
     Well, this concludes the first part of week 5. Again, this post might have been a bit off course but thank you all, again, for reading and I hope to hear from you in the comments! :)
                   -Lia
     











Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Week 4

Welcome back!

     Your weekly dose of rainwater is here! For this week I finished measuring the houses in the Fox Glenn neighborhood which add up to about 340 houses! Now, the reason I measured all these houses is to take the average size (which hopefully represents the average household in Flagstaff) and plug that amount in to the equation I mentioned before:
Rainfall (in) x 0.623 x Roof/ catchment Area (ft^2) x Runoff Coefficient
Based on the house measurements, the average rooftop size in square feet is 2,270.20 ft^2! This equation will give me the amount of rainfall (in gallons) the average person can collect in a given year. The major variable here will be the amount of rainfall. As I discussed in the last post, I took data from the Pulliam and 4SW stations and took the averages for each year for the past 30 years, 15 years, and each decade and made each into graphs. Going back to the equation, I took the total amount of precipitation for 2014 (18.41 in.) and plugged it into the equation to get the amount of water you could collect in our current climate. Here's what I found if, in our perfect little world, we could collect 95% of the water:
18.41 in x .623 x 2,270.20 x .95
= (drum roll please...)
24,736 gallons!
¡Ay caramba! That is a may-yan of water! That word translates to "a lot" or "abundance of" in Vulcan (as a tribute to the recently deceased Leonard Nimoy). Now this is how much you could have collected last year but on the topic of practicality, if a 1000 gallon tank is this size:
-You can ignore Mr. Joe Shmoe (although, he is a very intelligent Joe Shmoe if he has a water tank..)-
Imagine having 24 of those around your home! So, figuring out how all of this can relate to the average person is something I need to research in future weeks..
     Next, I made my own, hand-drawn (yes, I did use a real pen) graphs and created my own estimated trend. However, I continued that trend in to the next 5-10 years (2020-2025) and where it met with the years 2020 and 2025, I traced a dotted line back to the y-axis (precip. in inches) to find what might be the total precipitation for that year. I did this for graphs of the decade averages, totals for each year 15 and 30 years ago. Doing this I found that:
For decade graph: 2020: 15.9 in ; 2025: 14.8 in
For 15 year graph*: 2020: 22.7 in ; 2025: 24.5 in 
*Remember that the 15 year graph showed an increasing trend
For 30 year graph: 2020: 13.45 in ; 2025: 12.5 in
Because I am essentially trying to predict the future, there is definitely going to be some variability. That's why I created an "upper bound" (maximum, best case amount of predicted precip.) and a "lower bound" (the minimum, worst case amount of precip.). So this creates a range of amount of rainwater we could receive depending on climate change, emissions, etc. I chose to use the amounts/ data in the decade graphs as the upper bound, and those in the 30 year graphs as the lower bound. I hope to read more on a report by Hereford (I know, you're probably thinking what I did, "is that even a name? Or is it just another part of speech? Like 'Hereford, we will name him Florfinschmorp!'"). Nonetheless, in his report, he calculates his own average precipitation from 1950-2014, which I might uses as another upper bound. When I plug all these numbers into the equation (hey, its easier than integrals!) I predicted that in 2020, the most/ optimal amount of rainwater (using data from the decade graph) you can collect in one year is: 21,363.5 gallons with the minimum you can collect being 18,071.6 gallons.
By 2025, the amount you can collect can range from 19,885.5 gal to 16,795.2 gal.
Now you might be thinking "but, Lia, that's a lot of water! You just said Joe Shmoe would have trouble storing it all!" Well you are every correct, inquisitive reader, that is a lot of water! But this research really puts it into perspective when you have to think about spreading all of that out over a year's time! Another thing to consider is that yearly precip. isn't distributed evenly throughout the year, we have dry and monsoon seasons. That means that the water you collect in the wetter months needs to be spread out over the dryer months, when you get little to no rainfall. I hope to look more into this when I research practicality. 
     However there is hope for us up in the mountains! Down in Tuscon there is an ingenious man by the name of Brad Lancaster, who can fulfill practically all of his water needs (except his dishwasher) with the rain that falls on his roof! I think that's pretty incredible and hopeful for us considering that Tuscon only received 1/3 the amount of precipitation that we do! Awesome!
     Now, to wrap things up, my dad brought up a very interesting hypothesis as to why more precip. was collected at Pulliam than at 4SW (he is scientist after all, so he is pretty darn good at hypothesizing). He told me that an increased amount of aircraft activity over the years and increased condensation to due to different chemicals being emitted by more and more planes. This then shows an increasing trend in the graph. I myself am still confused as to the exact science behind his hypothesis but when I find out, I'll be sure to share it :) However, my rebuttal is pointing out that this trend is still prevalent at Wupatki and Sunset Crater, both far from any airport. Do you have hypothesis as to why there is an increase? Be sure to share it in the comments!
     Well, this is it for now, but I hope you enjoyed reading my weekly report!
And as always, thanks for reading! :)
                             -Lia